[Metaculus] Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
Basic
9
Ṁ3597resolved Dec 21
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2029, the official website of the Nobel Prizes (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/) lists the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold as a winner in any category, specifically for their contributions to their iteration of AlphaFold
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
29% chance
Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]
Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100?
46% chance
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
33% chance
Will an AI get an Ig Nobel Prize before 2050?
70% chance
Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?
69% chance
Will we be able to generate all stable protein conformations from a sequence by 2027?
24% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
32% chance
Will any ai/ml researcher win a nobel prize in 2025?
20% chance
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?
19% chance