Will anyone or anything that is not human (i.e. biologically a member of the human species) win any Nobel Prize by the end of 2099?
Any nonhuman animal or extraterrestrial being or AI system or deity
Corporations or other organizations created by, run by, or made up of human beings do not count.
Any Nobel Prize:
Current prizes include: physics | chemistry | physiology or medicine | literature | peace | economic sciences
Should new prizes be created, they will count toward resolution.
The recipient can be part of a group that shares the prize.
Resolves YES as soon as the prize is announced.
Resolves NO if, by market close, no nonhuman being is known to have received a Nobel prize in any category or if and when Nobel Prizes permanently cease being awarded before market close.
I will trade in this market if I find it mispriced.
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The gate is the Nobel Foundation's statutes: prizes go to persons, the Peace Prize may also go to an institution or association, and since 1974 the laureate must be alive at the announcement. None of the candidates in the description qualifies today: an animal is not a person in Swedish law, an AI is not an association, and a deity would have standing problems of its own. So YES requires the statutes to be amended, and the Foundation's record on eligibility is one change in 125 years, the 1974 rule, which narrowed it. The committees have also shown their instinct when the question came close: the 2024 Chemistry and Physics prizes went to the humans behind AlphaFold and machine learning, not to the systems. Seventy-four years is long enough for a statute change to be possible, which justifies something above the 2040 and 2050 markets, but 52% assumes it is roughly a coin flip that a private Swedish foundation rewrites who may receive Alfred Nobel's money, and nothing in its history makes that a coin flip.
@RuiRodrigues It’s made of human beings. My description says: Any nonhuman animal or extraterrestrial being or AI system or deity. No one would say a football team is nonhuman. That’s neither here nor there.