[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

Question

Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/8677/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria

This question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the IEA

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 18% chance (15 traders, as of Jun 21, 2026).

Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

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