[Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? [Mod note: as a MP]
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Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.

If Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as No.

Resolution should cite credible media reports, or an official announcement from the returning officer of the constituency in which Sunak is a candidate (if he is a candidate in any constituency).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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Should track with the not-Conservative percentage in

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