Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI provides API access to the o4 model within 30 days following the official release date of GPT-5. Confirmation of API access must be verifiable through an official OpenAI announcement or documentation on their API platform. If no such access is granted within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

OpenAI has been developing a series of AI models, including the o-series reasoning models and the GPT-series language models. The o4 model is part of OpenAI's reasoning model lineup, designed to handle complex, multi-step problems. As of April 2025, OpenAI released the o4-mini model, a more cost-efficient reasoning model delivering strong performance on tasks like math, coding, and vision. The o4-mini model is available to all API users on tiers 1 through 5, subject to organization verification, and supports the Responses API. (openai.com)

Considerations

OpenAI's release strategy has evolved over time. In February 2025, CEO Sam Altman announced plans to unify the o-series and GPT-series models, aiming to create systems that can utilize all tools and determine optimal processing strategies for various tasks. This unification suggests that future models, such as GPT-5, may integrate reasoning capabilities directly, potentially affecting the availability of standalone models like o4. (theoutpost.ai)

Given this strategic direction, it's important to monitor OpenAI's official communications for updates on model releases and API access policies, as they may influence the resolution of this market.