[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Basic
9
Ṁ3832026
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves a Yes if after March 22, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that a terrorist attack using an aerial drone led to at least one injury or death in the United States.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
41% chance
Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
61% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
17% chance
Will a fully autonomous AI-powered US military drone kill a human being without express human direction before 2025?
20% chance
Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
36% chance
Will anyone in the United States be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
6% chance
[Metaculus] Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?
83% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
34% chance