Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before December 15, 2023, credible sources report that the pneumonia cases reportedly occurring in Beijing or Liaoning have been identified as being caused by a novel pathogen.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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@Domer Resolved. In the future, if Metaculus has already resolved you can ask the bot to resolve by sending it a managram with text "resolve <market_url>". I'll probably put link for that in the descriptions at some point.