Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially identifies a novel (previously unknown or newly emerged) human infectious disease before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

A "novel human infectious disease" means:

• A pathogen or disease that has not been previously documented in humans

• A known pathogen that has evolved significantly new characteristics (such as transmission method, virulence, or host range)

• A disease that can be transmitted between humans (not just zoonotic cases with no human-to-human transmission)

Official identification requires formal recognition by the WHO through official channels such as Disease Outbreak News, press releases, or similar authoritative communications.

Background

The WHO continuously monitors global disease outbreaks and emerging infectious threats. Currently, the organization is monitoring several concerns including:

• Avian Influenza A(H5N1), which continues to affect poultry with occasional human infections, though sustained human-to-human transmission has not been identified

• Seasonal respiratory pathogens including influenza, RSV, and hMPV

• Various other potential zoonotic threats that could cross from animals to humans

The last major novel human infectious disease officially identified was SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in late 2019/early 2020.

Considerations

Disease identification timelines can vary significantly. Some pathogens may circulate for months before being officially classified as novel human infectious diseases. The resolution depends on the WHO's official designation, not on when the disease first emerged.