Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves Yes if, on the date of the US Presidential Election in 2024, both of these conditions are true:

• A candidate who earned at least one delegate in the 2024 Republican Primary is actively campaigning for the office of US President in 2024

• That same candidate is not listed as the nominee of the Republican (or Democratic) party in 26 or more US states.

For this question, the candidate may not be nominated by the Republican or Democratic party for any reason. They may start their own party, join another third-party, campaign as an independent, or claim to be a Republican but not receive the party's endorsement, asking voters to write them in.

The determination of whether a candidate is considered to be "actively campaigning" will be at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.