Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve positively if a panel of AI experts chosen by Metaculus concludes at any point before January 1st, 2025 that a model with capabilities at least as impressive as GPT-4 is widely available for download.

While there is no ideal way to compare the capabilities of various LLMs, this panel of experts will be called if credible reports arise that a powerful LLM believed to be as impressive as GPT-4 is widely available for download. This panel of experts will then determine if such an LLM meets the threshold to be considered as powerful as GPT-4.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.