When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
5
125Ṁ872100
21%
Before 2040
17%
Before 2060
7%
Before 2080
7%
Before 2100
47%
After 2100/ Never (fundamental atmospheric chaos prevents this level of accuracy)
This market asks when 14-day weather forecasts will reach at least 60% accuracy as determined by official statements from major meteorological organizations (NOAA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc.).
Current accuracy levels for reference:
7-day forecasts: ~80% accurate
10-day forecasts: ~50% accurate
Sources:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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