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MANIFOLD
When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
12
Ṁ125Ṁ176
2100
37%
Before 2040
16%
Before 2060
7%
Before 2080
9%
Before 2100
32%
After 2100/ Never (fundamental atmospheric chaos prevents this level of accuracy)

This market asks when 14-day weather forecasts will reach at least 60% accuracy as determined by official statements from major meteorological organizations (NOAA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc.).

Current accuracy levels for reference:

  • 7-day forecasts: ~80% accurate

  • 10-day forecasts: ~50% accurate

Sources:

Market context
Climate
Climate change
Meta-Forecasting
Weather
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Could you rename the options "before 2060", "before 2080" and "before 2100" to "2041-2060", "2061-2080" and "2081-2100", respectively?

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