[Metaculus] Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
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Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

As of September 28, 2021, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).

Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.

This question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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bought Ṁ1 YES

this is unreasonable

Anyone know if FAS is considering enrichment or not? I would assume they are since that's the hard part, but I'm not terribly familiar with their criteria.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@jskf requesting resolution

@mattparlmer Metaculus hasn't resolved yet, and the criteria are not straight-forward enough for me to feel comfortable resolving before they do.

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