Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
1,000
3.00The PHEIC system was created in 2005 [1]. There have been seven PHEIC declared since then [1]. So model this as a Poisson distribution with intensity 7/19 per year; hence the probability of at least one PHEIC in 2024 is ~31%.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Background