Will OpenAI name a year by which they expect to have achieved AGI by 01/01/2025?
Dec 31

Definition of AGI will be OpenAI's chosen definition at the given time. Any statement used for resolving this must specifically refer to one of the following terms:

  • AGI (or Artificial General Intelligence)

  • ASI (or Artificial Super Intelligence)

Any statement must name or imply a specific year.

  • "By year X" resolves to YES.

  • "Within X years/months/weeks" also resolves to YES as it implies a definitive expected maximum year.

  • Specific references to the then current year (2023 or 2024) resolve to YES.

  • Statements claiming to have already achieved AGI resolve to YES.

Any statement must refer to OpenAI achieving AGI, not a competitor, or private/open-source project.

Any statement must be official. That is, either be posted on a page under the OpenAI domain, or be a public statement by a non-anonymous executive at the company.

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Isn't it really against their interests to do this?