Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States military conducts a direct military invasion or sustained military operation on Colombian territory before February 1, 2026. This includes ground troops, airstrikes, or naval operations targeting Colombian soil or airspace. The resolution does not include economic sanctions, tariffs, or threats alone. Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming that U.S. military forces have engaged in combat operations within Colombian territory.

Background

Trump has threatened military action against Colombian President Gustavo Petro following the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump said a military operation in Colombia "sounds good" to him. As of now, there is no public indication that the U.S. military has expanded Operation Southern Spear strikes into Colombian territory or territorial waters. Analysts said it remained unclear whether Trump would act on his threats or whether he was aiming to coerce the Latin American nations into cooperating with Washington.

Considerations

Colombia is a long-standing U.S. security partner, unlike Venezuela, which distinguishes it from the recent Venezuela operation. The Administration released a National Security Strategy document that noted a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine reflecting the Administration's apparent targeting of Latin American states. Analysts suggested Cuba would be the top priority if further action occurred, given longstanding U.S. grievances against the country.