Sorry guys, I didn’t know that the market is so non-liquid. I purchased YES as an insurance, to be less disappointed if he wins.

@ViktorWang it's you

it surprises me how the NO holders seem to be expecting a free and fair election which mirrors opinion poll results

I'll add some YES limit orders

Betting NO at 29%. Polling aggregate shows Tisza leading by 8-19pp across pollsters (21 Research: 56-37, Zavecz: 51-38, PolitPro: 49-41). Fidesz's gerrymandered system gives them ~6pp cushion, but even at the low end of opposition leads, this is not enough to overcome. The largest Fidesz outperformance ever was ~8pp; they'd need unprecedented 10-15pp outperformance. My estimate: ~20% Orban stays PM. Main risks: lower-than-expected opposition turnout, state media mobilization of rural base.

miklos, why do you end the question before the elections?

@TTom I assume, to prevent people from betting on an outcome that they already know to be true. This prevents people from swinging the odds on the graph and making a profit with no risk. Some market creators do this. Looking at the closing date and time, has it been extended since this question?

@Barna

it was 1st april, now changed to 12th april.

@Barna My intent was to have this resolve when polls close. When I created the market, the election date had not been announced yet, so I used a placeholder and then forgot to update it once the date was set. It will resolve at poll closing: 12 April 2026, 19:00 Budapest time (CEST).

@miklosme that might still be somewhat early , as the voting closes at 19,00 but results take a couple of hours to show.

thanks for the explanation though.

@TTom I meant to say closes at that time, and resolves when result is official. My bad.

Will Orban flee to Russia after losing the elections?

@deletedaccount001 Great question, you can make that market.

Government popularity is sliding. Elections in 11 months. Biggest risk is a free and clean election.

Orbán is now an underdog at all major pollsters.

@Mullet4MyV wow

Opposition is leading 46 - 37. Be advised, gerrymandering is already going strong, but might get even stronger.

Current polls have him tied with leading opposition, I still believe he's more likely to win but not 70% likely, so I'm buying some NO.

53% of all Hungarians want change of government:

https://telex.hu/belfold/2024/07/18/median-fidesz-tisza-part-12-szazalek-kulonbseg

Orban landslided the country i doubt there will be another chance unless gyurcsany comes back