🏅 Top traders

Great thread:

https://x.com/BogataTimar/status/2043787197313139178

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2d8zw2d3rkt

Hungary election: Viktor Orbán ousted after 16 years in power as opposition heads for landslide - follow live

The long-serving prime minister concedes defeat to Péter Magyar, who has promised closer EU ties and an anti-corruption drive.

@TheAllMemeingEye

I predict Fidesz will lose fairly decisively and then nobody who thought that they would rig it will make any updates about any future elections

@SemioticRivalry

this has to be the worst election rigging i've ever seen

@SemioticRivalry it couldn't possibly be that the corrupt and autocratic pro-russia power-clinger is actually unpopular

@Lorelai how does a party that isn't in power even rig an election? 😂

Hard to say whether Vance's election interference will help his case here. What is it with the current US regime trying to help far-right European autocrats?

@Lorelai ideological alignment?

@hidetzugu lol it did not help his case. The Vance curse is never not hilarious

@Lorelai golden rule: it you want something destroyed, send in Vance. Vance converted to catholicism in 2019... Gets the rare honor to meet the pope... The pope immediately dies!

@hidetzugu let's just hope he's part of the next delegation to russia

The fix is out.

@10thOfficial 40k at 35% for 90 minutes

Was this also insurance?

Sorry guys, I didn’t know that the market is so non-liquid. I purchased YES as an insurance, to be less disappointed if he wins.

@IhorKendiukhov Tough luck. That’s why you check the holders and trades.

@lynx655 And thanks for hitting my 50% limit NO trade. 🥳

@ViktorWang it's you

it surprises me how the NO holders seem to be expecting a free and fair election which mirrors opinion poll results

I'll add some YES limit orders

@Hakari We don’t expect a fair election, but our elections are free and have been, and will be as well. The cheating is not going on in the polling stations but before and after that, and opinion polls already correct for those.

Betting NO at 29%. Polling aggregate shows Tisza leading by 8-19pp across pollsters (21 Research: 56-37, Zavecz: 51-38, PolitPro: 49-41). Fidesz's gerrymandered system gives them ~6pp cushion, but even at the low end of opposition leads, this is not enough to overcome. The largest Fidesz outperformance ever was ~8pp; they'd need unprecedented 10-15pp outperformance. My estimate: ~20% Orban stays PM. Main risks: lower-than-expected opposition turnout, state media mobilization of rural base.

@Terminator2 Medián has the best track record in the last 30-35 years among pollsters, you should check them as well with 21 research. Závecz is okay. PolitPro is not an independent pollster, it’s an aggregator that doesn’t make a distinction between legitimate independent pollsters and Orbáns propaganda machines that still lie about fidesz being ahead by 10%.

miklos, why do you end the question before the elections?

@TTom I assume, to prevent people from betting on an outcome that they already know to be true. This prevents people from swinging the odds on the graph and making a profit with no risk. Some market creators do this. Looking at the closing date and time, has it been extended since this question?

@Barna

it was 1st april, now changed to 12th april.

@Barna My intent was to have this resolve when polls close. When I created the market, the election date had not been announced yet, so I used a placeholder and then forgot to update it once the date was set. It will resolve at poll closing: 12 April 2026, 19:00 Budapest time (CEST).

@miklosme that might still be somewhat early , as the voting closes at 19,00 but results take a couple of hours to show.

thanks for the explanation though.

@TTom I meant to say closes at that time, and resolves when result is official. My bad.