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MANIFOLD
Will victor orban flee to US by EOY2028?
30%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Viktor Orbán establishes legal residence in the United States or is granted asylum/protected status by the U.S. government at any point between the market's creation and December 31, 2028. It resolves to NO if he does not.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the U.S. government, credible international news reporting, or documented legal proceedings confirming his arrival or residency status.

Background

Viktor Orbán has served as the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. His political stance is often characterized by conservative nationalist policies and has frequently drawn criticism from European Union institutions and international organizations. While Orbán has maintained strong rhetorical support for certain American conservative movements and politicians, there is no public indication that he intends to relocate to the United States.

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Market context
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