Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Judit Polgár is officially elected as the President of Hungary (either in an interim or permanent capacity) and takes office following the vacancy of the presidency in July 2026.

The market will resolve to NO if another individual is officially sworn in or takes office as the next President of Hungary, or if the vacancy is filled by anyone other than Judit Polgár.

• Primary Source of Truth: Official announcements from the Hungarian Parliament (parlament.hu) or major international news outlets such as Reuters, The Guardian, and AP News.

• Cutoff Date: If no permanent or interim president has officially taken office by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the status of the presidency at that time. If acting or temporary heads of state are in place pending an election, the market will remain open until a president is officially elected by the National Assembly.

Background

Following the April 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election, the newly elected Prime Minister Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party achieved a two-thirds supermajority, ending 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party. On July 18, 2026, President Tamás Sulyok signed a constitutional amendment prematurely ending his term, triggering a leadership transition.

On July 19, 2026, Prime Minister Magyar announced that he would meet with world-renowned chess grandmaster Judit Polgár to formally invite her to serve as Hungary's next president. Polgár, widely considered the strongest female chess player in history, would serve as a non-partisan head of state representing national unity until a new constitution is adopted. Under Hungarian law, the Parliament must elect a new president within 30 days of a vacancy.