IGNORE “OTHER” IT WILL RESOLVE AS NO
Definitions of “ending”;
FOR ALL LEADERS: Death, imprisonment (if it legally prevents political involvement), any ruling upheld barring them from election, exile, replacement or resigning of any kind, etc.
Trump: Losing 2024 election / being unable to run
Biden: Losing 2024 election / not running
Netanyahu: Getting booted as PM by legislature/courts/next election
Putin: Losing 2024 election
Modi: losing 2024 election / getting booted by legislature
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Wait @nikki And @shankypanky I’m not sure I agree with this!
Biden is still literally president of the United States, and if Trump loses the election, he would continue to be president for two months subsequently!
oh hm you're right - unresolving as Biden's career isn't over. set the close date for inauguration day 2025
(thanks for calling it out Ben, I was definitely too hasty here)
@shankypanky @benshindel read the description
Biden: "Losing 2024 election / not running" counts since Biden is not running
@nikki @shankypanky I guess it's hard to say, but I highly doubt this resolution would be in the spirit of the question or the market creator.
If Trump Loses the 2024 election AND Biden "doesn't run", which would "trigger first"? I'd argue that Trump losing in 2024 would happen BEFORE Biden's "not running" as he remains as President for another 2 months. I think the market creator put in "not running" as a criteria to account for scenarios where Biden couldn't "lose" the election as he wouldn't be IN the election. But his political career is obviously and explicitly not "over"!
Like for instance, imagine a scenario where RFK were to beat Trump and Biden. Whose political career would be over "first", Biden's or Trump's?
If your answer is Trump's, then it makes sense to wait to see if Kamala (or RFK, lol) defeats Trump before resolving.
yeah sorry for jumbling this around - I think traders were betting on the idea that a biden drop out counts and moreso, Trump losing doesn't mean his political career is over. Biden has made a statement that he's stepped out and I suppose it's still possible that Trump may continue to involve himself in politics if he doesn't win the presidency?
I think this is the right resolution? but I'll go ask for a second opinion and come back with an update, I don't want to keep unresolving and re-resolving it since I've already gone back and forth too much on it as it is :(
okay I've had a chat with @Joshua and while Ben's perspective makes sense, so does leaving it resolved to Biden as that's the framing of the criteria (a drop out counts). we've decided to go with the latter because of the specification and apparent intention here, and it's sensible enough not to warrant entirely overriding it.
@mikeangelo how does this resolve if Trump loses in the 2024 election? Biden will still be president for another 2 months after, and thus, his political career won’t have ended before Trump lost the election, correct?