Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?
76
5.3k
2045
Joe Biden55%

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the two oldest candidates to ever run for the US presidency. They have both passed the median life expectancy in the US (77.26 years). Both have publicly displayed signs of cognitive decline and both have already experienced declining health from the demands of the presidency.

This market resolves based on the person's age when they expire.

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Trump is 4 years younger than Biden FYI

@duck_master And a lot heavier too.

@duck_master criteria is age at death, not who will die first chronologically

Related but not identical

@MaxGhenis Different market with different resolution criteria but thanks for linking this.

To clarify, suppose Biden died tomorrow, and Trump died the following day. Then this market would resolve to Biden because he had a longer lifespan, right?

@Conflux Yes, if Biden died tomorrow the market wouldn't resolve in Trump's favor for another 1302 days.

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