Over 99% of the internet across borders travels through undersea fiber optic cables.
There are about 500 of these cables, and each year about 200 need to be repaired (mostly due to accidents). It is trivial for military to deliberately break these cables. There are in most cases redundancies, but if enough break there could be massive outages across the internet.
An outage affecting a single country will be enough for this market to resolve to YES. An outage that reduces speeds significantly even though there is still connectivity will resolve to YES.
An outage for a reason other than an issue with the undersea cables will NOT resolve the market to YES.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Baltic_Sea_submarine_cable_disruptions
Unbelievable that this has snuck around for so long.
@Panfilo This sounds correct, but I'm unclear on how big the impact was in Lithuania -- does "At the time of the incident, the cable provided about 1/3rd of the internet capacity of Lithuania" mean that speeds and availability was drastically impacted? Mildly? Something in between?
@EvanDaniel I'm not seeing discussion of the outage itself, and even some bragging about the outage being restored in just a couple weeks and having some redundancy, so I've exited my position if that doesn't seem like enough to you.
@Panfilo I just hadn't done any research about it beyond a quick skim of the Wiki article. My current read of this market is that a cable cut alone isn't enough, it also has to cause a relevant outage, disruption, or slowdown. I'm not sure what the bar is for disruptive enough, or whether this incident met it.