The MarineTraffic service, which monitors ship traffic, shows that the Hong Kong-flagged container ship Xin Xin Tian 2 was at the EstLink 2 electricity cable in the Gulf of Finland on Christmas Day. The ship was in the vicinity of the cable at 12:26 p.m. The Finnish transmission system operator Fingrid announced that EstLink 2 was disconnected from the grid at 12.26 p.m. The power transmission of the connection was 650 MW when it was disconnected. Xin Xin Tian 2 left St. Petersburg on Christmas Eve and is on its way to Port Said, Egypt, according to MarineTraffic.
Fingrid is currently investigating where the connection has been interrupted. For the time being, it is not certain whether the connection has been lost on land or if something has happened to the submarine cable. It is also unknown whether the Xin Xin Tian 2 ship has anything to do with the electrical cable failure. "Nothing is ruled out, all the rocks and stumps are turned over and we see what causes it [the outage]. We also consider it [sabotage] to be an option," Arto Pahkin, Fingrid's control room manager, told Iltalehti earlier.
There have recently been other suspected cases of sabotage in the Baltic Sea linked to cargo ships flying the flags of China and Hong Kong. In November, the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was suspected of cutting two critical communications cables in the Baltic Sea. In October last year, the cargo vessel Newnew Polar Bear, registered in Hong Kong, was linked to damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline.
Read also:
Fingrid provides new information on electricity cables – Fault likely in the sea
"The matter is still being verified in measurements, but most likely the fault lies on the submarine cable side. The location of the fault is still being specified.
"Based on the damage, an estimate is made of the duration of the repair work. It looks like it will take some time for the cable to be back in use, Pahkin comments.
German data center company Hetzner reported that there have also been problems with the connection between Helsinki and Frankfurt on Christmas Day. It is not clear whether the problems are related to the loss of the EstLink 2 power connection.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) told Zeit that there was even reason to start with the sabotage assumption.
NOTE: I'm still inexperienced at question creation, so there may be some discussion when we decide to resolve.
Update 2024-26-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Mutually Exclusive Options: While initially intended to be mutually exclusive, multiple causes may be combining.
Current Likelihood: Sabotage is currently the most likely cause.
Update 2024-26-12 (PST): - Resolution Criteria Updated:
Originally, causes were mutually exclusive
Now, multiple causes may be combining (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00https://x.com/STTuutiset/status/1874837335977992610
"Fingrid is demanding the seizure of the Eagle S oil tanker to secure its claim for damages to Estlink 2. Fingrid says it has filed an application for seizure with the Helsinki District Court today."
"The first images from the underwater surveys of the Eagle S show that the hull has been damaged."
@komplexkonjugat Thanks, also this:
Finnish officials on Sunday said they found miles and miles of tracks on the bed of the Baltic Sea that indicate a Russia-linked tanker could be responsible for slicing a cluster of valuable data and power cables.
Sami Paila, the detective chief inspector of Finland's National Bureau of Investigation, said "dragging marks" from an aging tanker's anchor had been found beneath the Baltic Sea near the cables, Reuters reported.
"The track is dozens of kilometers in length," Paila said.
@komplexkonjugat But this may point to mishap:
Experienced maritime expert Markku Mylly has raised alarms over the ship’s poor state.
A 2023 inspection found 24 deficiencies, four serious enough to ground the ship in Ghana.
Mylly described the Eagle S as "very risky to operate," emphasizing that it should either undergo extensive repairs or be decommissioned entirely.
The tanker’s age, at 18 years, exceeds the preferred lifespan of 15 years for most oil tankers. Mylly suggests the ship is no longer safe for open-sea operations.
https://www.dagens.com/war/from-collisions-to-cable-damage-the-dark-record-of-eagle-s
@komplexkonjugat In addition, investigations have been carried out underwater. On Monday evening, the police published two images that the Border Guard took of the tanker's hull.
On the left side near the bow, you can see what authorities say are fresh cracks in the paint and traces of impact. The suspicion is that they come from the anchor chain.
From your link.
Mark Rutte @SecGenNATO
Spoke w/ @alexstubb about the ongoing Finnish-led investigation into possible sabotage of undersea cables. I expressed my full solidarity and support. #NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
2. We have briefed our key international partners. Together with Estonia, we have asked for a reinforced NATO presence in our neighbourhood, especially around critical infrastructure. Our request has already been met.
3. Together with our Allies and partners, we will continue to address the challenges posed by Russia’s shadow fleet. This includes measures agreed with NATO, the EU and our partners, such as inspections of the insurance certificates of vessels. We are also looking at ways, based on international maritime law, to respond more effectively to similar incidents in the future.
There were previous outages:
The cable experienced an outage on 26 January 2024 originating from the Estonian coast. After repair work was concluded, the connection resumed commercial operation on 4 September 2024.[33]
And the sabotage speculation is already also on Wikipedia:
On 25 December 2024, an unplanned outage in Estlink 2 reduced the Estonia–Finland cross-border capacity from 1,016 MW to 358 MW.[34] Fingrid expects the outage to last until August 2025.[34] At the time of the outage, electricity was flowing from Finland to Estonia at a rate of 658 MW. Concerns about potential sabotage have arisen due to recent outages in the Baltic Sea region, although subsea cables are also prone to technical malfunctions and accidents. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo confirmed that authorities were investigating the incident.[35]
At early evening, the Finnish Border Guard escorted the tanker Eagle S, a part of Russia's shadow fleet according to Lloyd's List, to Porkkalanniemi. By early morning on 26 December, both vessels were still near Porkkala. Sami Rakshit of the Finnish Customs commented, that the tanker is suspected to belong to a shadow fleet.
The suspected fault in EstLink 2 is located on the seabed of the Gulf of Finland
Measurements conducted on Thursday by system operators Elering and Fingrid indicate that the fault in the EstLink 2 electricity connection between Estonia and Finland lies in the underwater section of the connection on the Finnish side. This assessment is based on cable measurements. The suspected fault has not yet been physically identified.
[My speculation: could this have been the incentive for sabotage]
The EstLink 2 fault does not hinder the planned desynchronisation of the Baltic states from the Russia-controlled frequency area and synchronization with the Continental European electricity grid, scheduled for early February 2025. The Baltic states have sufficient controllable capacity and interconnections to carry out the synchronization with the Continental European frequency area even without the EstLink 2 connection.
The suspected fault in EstLink 2 is located on the seabed of the Gulf of Finland | Elering
I'll wait for further developments, and then maybe we can set "on land mishap" to NO?
The EU suspects that the damage to Estlink 2, a key subsea power cable linking Finland and Estonia, may have been caused by the oil tanker Eagle S.
Finnish authorities have boarded and detained the Eagle S, a Cook Islands-flagged oil tanker linked to Russia's so-called "dark fleet", a network of tankers operating without insurance recognised by western countries.
The vessel was observed to slow down when in the vicinity of the cable when it was damaged.
According to the EU, the shadow fleet threatens security and the environment, while simultaneously funding Russia's war chest.
"We propose additional measures, including sanctions targeting this fleet," said Kaja Kallas, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
EU, Nato respond to "dark" ship detained in Finnish waters | Yle News | Yle
Cable damage in the Baltic Sea is increasing
It was only in November that Swedish, German and Finnish authorities launched investigations into two cases of cable damage in the Baltic Sea that occurred almost simultaneously. These included a data cable that runs between the Finnish capital Helsinki and Rostock in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and a Swedish-Lithuanian data cable. The damage to the two affected fibre optic cables occurred within less than 24 hours.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) said shortly after the incidents became known that sabotage had to be assumed. Shortly before Christmas, police officers from Germany, Denmark, Finland and Sweden investigated a suspicious Chinese ship together with colleagues from China.
Following the recent series of failures of power cables, gas pipelines and telecommunications links in the Baltic Sea, the authorities in the region are on high alert. However, in addition to possible acts of sabotage, accidents, such as those caused by ship anchors, are often the cause.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Ostsee: Störung an Unterseekabel zwischen Estland und Finnland | ZEIT ONLINE
@spiderduckpig I tried to make them that, yes. But there may be several causes combining.
At the moment, the sabotage option seems most likely.