This market resolves YES if an AI-generated poem wins or is shortlisted as a finalist for a major literary award before December 31, 2025.

Qualifying literary awards include:

• Pulitzer Prize (Poetry category)

• National Book Award (Poetry category)

• T.S. Eliot Prize

• Forward Prize

• Griffin Poetry Prize

• Costa Book Award (Poetry category)

• Any other poetry award with similar prestige and recognition

To qualify:

• The poem must be substantially generated by an AI system (though human curation or minor editing is allowed)

• The AI authorship must be disclosed to the award committee

• The poem must be officially announced as a winner or finalist by the award organization

The market resolves NO if no AI-generated poem wins or is shortlisted for any qualifying award by December 31, 2025.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from award organizations or credible news reports from major literary publications.

References:

• https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-76900-1

  Background

  AI-generated poetry has been advancing rapidly in recent years, with large language models demonstrating increasingly sophisticated capabilities in creating verse that mimics human writing styles and techniques. However, the literary establishment has been cautious about embracing AI-authored works. Many poetry contests and awards currently have explicit policies prohibiting AI-generated submissions, including the Gwendolyn Brooks Youth Poetry Awards, the Queer Poetry Prize, and the Robeson Community College Poetry Contest.

  As of mid-2024, no AI-generated poem has won or been shortlisted for any major literary award. The question explores whether this will change by the end of 2025, as AI capabilities continue to evolve and the literary world grapples with questions of authorship, creativity, and the role of technology in the arts.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves YES if an AI-generated poem:

  • Wins OR is shortlisted/named a finalist for any of the following awards before December 31, 2025:

    • Pulitzer Prize (Poetry category)

    • National Book Award (Poetry category)

    • T.S. Eliot Prize

    • Forward Prize

    • Griffin Poetry Prize

    • Costa Book Award (Poetry category)

    • Any other poetry award with comparable prestige and recognition

  For a poem to qualify:

  1. It must be substantially generated by an AI system (human curation or minor editing is permitted)

  2. The AI authorship must be disclosed to the award committee

  3. The poem must be officially announced as a winner or finalist by the award organization

  The market resolves NO if no AI-generated poem meets these criteria by December 31, 2025.

  Resolution will be based on official announcements from award organizations or credible news reports from major literary publications.

  Considerations

  The literary world is still debating the artistic merit and ethical implications of AI-generated poetry. Some considerations that may affect this market:

  • Award committees may change their policies regarding AI submissions during this timeframe

  • The definition of "substantially generated" may be subject to interpretation in cases where there is significant human involvement

  • Some awards may create separate categories for AI-generated work, which would not count for this market unless they are part of the main competition

  • The requirement for disclosed AI authorship means that any AI-generated work submitted under false pretenses (claiming human authorship) would not qualify, even if later revealed