This market resolves YES if at least one major poetry competition (with national or international recognition and a prize value of at least $5,000) explicitly updates its rules to ban AI-generated or AI-assisted poetry submissions before September 2025.

The ban must be clearly stated in the competition rules and must specifically mention AI tools, large language models, or similar technology.

I'll resolve based on official announcements from competition organizers or credible news reports about such rule changes.

Source for context: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-76900-1

Background

Poetry competitions are increasingly confronting the challenge of AI-generated submissions. Recent research published in Nature Scientific Reports has examined the impact of AI on creative writing competitions. Some organizations have already taken action:

• Migrant Writers of Singapore (MWS) recalled winners after discovering AI-generated submissions and plans to explicitly ban AI-generated writing in future competitions

• Literary magazine Clarkesworld has banned AI-generated submissions

• Several literary organizations now require disclosure of AI use or prohibit AI-generated content entirely

However, many major poetry competitions have not yet updated their rules to explicitly address AI-generated content.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if before September 1, 2025:

1. At least one major poetry competition with national or international recognition

2. With a prize value of at least $5,000

3. Explicitly updates its rules to ban AI-generated or AI-assisted poetry submissions

4. The ban must specifically mention AI tools, large language models, or similar technology in the competition rules

Resolution will be based on:

• Official announcements from competition organizers

• Credible news reports about such rule changes

The market resolves NO if no major poetry competition meeting the above criteria explicitly bans AI-generated submissions before September 1, 2025.

Considerations

• Some competitions may implement partial restrictions (requiring disclosure rather than outright bans) which would NOT qualify for YES resolution

• The trend of addressing AI in creative competitions is growing, but the timeline for major competitions to implement explicit bans remains uncertain

• Poetry competitions typically update rules annually before their submission periods open, which may affect the timing of any potential rule changes