To the nearest 10k, how many steps will @firstuserhere walk in a 2023 day?
ManifoldManifold UsersMeta-marketsHealth and FitnessMetafirstuserhereNew Year's Market Resolutions 2022UnrankedNew Year's Resolutions 2024
Basic
63
Ṁ71k
resolved Dec 28
We have 50k attempts marked for the next two days (Dec 6, 7) and a date for the 100k attempt (Dec 15th). Set your calendars!!
We have a new step record of 47375!!!
50k has been broken
We have a new highest step count: 70k
92,614 today
We have a new record of 93.3k [image]Today’s attempt is still ongoing (with another 3.5hrs left).
This one had rounding folks, and there’s only one way to round 99.9 Source [image]
100%99.1%
100,000 (or more)
0.0%
10,000
0.0%
20,000
0.0%
30,000
0.0%
40,000
0.1%
50,000
0.1%
60,000
0.1%
70,000
0.1%
80,000
0.5%
90,000

This is to the nearest 10k, with rounding, so 15,000 => 20k while 14,999 => 10k.

Here is @firstuserhere‘s graph of their daily steps. And I’ve attached their personal markets as well:

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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This one had rounding folks, and there’s only one way to round 99.9

Source

We have a new record of 93.3k

Today’s attempt is still ongoing (with another 3.5hrs left).

92,614 today

@mattyb Wait can I just buy 1000 worth of 90k rn? What’s going on? Any reason this doesn’t resolve to 90k?

@AaronBailey Oh it’s for all 2023. I’m

An idiot, thought it was just for today.

legend.

fwiw: if we get a 95k update, this market updates instantly to 100k (rounding).

@mattyb 1hr left on today’s attempt (in FUH’s timezone).

87.7 is still the most recent update (90 mins ago)

@firstuserhere how we doin?

@AaronBailey timing-wise, 90mins left

@mattyb I thought FUH was east coast?

@AaronBailey he’s in a weird timezone. it’s +1.5 from EST

@mattyb Cutting it super close. I’m calc’ing 10k per hour like 30k steps ago. If FUH is still going they’ve probably slowed down and need to have crossed 90k by now.

Wait I just realized he only needs to do 95k steps for this to resolve 100k. I am such a dumbass

@Shump How much more mana will I lose because I don't read market descriptions properly?

@Shump I made the same mistake lol

@TheBayesian @Shump sorry, I did think about doing Math.Floor() but figured this was simpler.

@Shump Wait is FUH close to 95k?

@AaronBailey Last update is 87.7k at 21:18. Make of that what you will

@Shump Where you see that? Discord?

@AaronBailey https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-over-85000#AQIYVDCaaTNT2F1odFrI

@AaronBailey you need to watch like 10 markets and the discord to stay atop this now

@mattyb Oh ya already lost money on that one lol

@mattyb TV is a thing of the past. This is what all entertainment will be in the future: tracking the actions of obscure micro celebrities using multiple platforms

@Tumbles if this is the future, i’m here for it

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