Next Moon Landing [Mega-Market] 🌚🚀🧑‍🚀🌝

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Ṁ1402

2029

93%

A woman is onboard

86%

While humans are on the lunar surface, a capsule is still in orbit

80%

An American citizen is onboard

78%

Uses a rocket designed by Space X

74%

More than 50 million Americans watch the moon landing

72%

Rocket was launched from US soil

72%

It is on a NASA mission

51%

There are no reported incidents which disrupt the mission’s original planning & timeline (post-takeoff)

50%

At least 1 person with a citizenship other than to the US is aboard (could be a dual-citizen)

33%

3 or more humans land on the lunar surface

17%

The entire mission takes less than 8 days, from astronaut takeoff to landing on Earth (Apollo 11’s timing)

This market is about the next successful, human-staffed mission to land on the moon, and what will be true of the journey from earth to the moon and back.

Feel free to add anything relevant to the lunar mission, I may ask some qualifying questions.

If there is a trip to the lunar surface, it must meet the following criteria for anything in this market to Resolve YES:

Has humans onboard
Lands on the moon
Humans disembark from the ship and step onto the lunar surface in a suit, or in a vehicle (not counting the lunar lander - think carts or cars).

Market will extend as needed.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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8 Comments

19 Holders

73 Trades

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bought Ṁ10 3 or more humans lan... NO

"The entire mission" does that include time spent in Gateway? Does it include time when all humans are still on Earth but there's a Starship depot in orbit getting refueled?

@Mqrius if this is about the 8days timing, it would be from Earth takeoff to Earth landing.

I’m thinking the clock starts when the rocket countdown hits 0. Does that answer the question?

@mattyb The Artemis 3 landing will be done with Starship. There will be several launches, first a Depot Starship, then several Tanker Starships to fill up the Depot, then HLS Starship that gets refueled from the Depot. HLS Starship then goes on its way to Gateway in lunar NRHO orbit.

Meanwhile, astronauts launch on SLS in the Orion capsule, and also go to Gateway. There they transfer to HLS Starship for landing on the moon. After that they take off from the moon in HLS, then go to gateway, where they transfer back to Orion and then go back to Earth.

My point is that there's several different rocket launches involved, and the launches start well before the astronauts actually go to space. It's not a single launch like the Apollo missions. Do you start the clock when the astronauts get launched off Earth, or do you start earlier when Depot Starship launches?

@Mqrius ah. thank you for explaining rockets to me. I had no idea how any of this worked, my mental model for this all is still in the 70s.

Let’s start the clock from when the astronauts leave the earth to make this as close to an even comparison as possible. I’ll update the answer to be clearer.

@mattyb Aight that works! Yeah it's gonna be interesting to see the whole thing develop over the next few years.

@Mqrius i’m weirdly excited at the prospect of getting to see a moon landing in my lifetime.

also i wonder what the flat earthers are going to think when we go back to the moon with 4k cameras.

bought Ṁ100 An American citizen ... YES

Artemis III has already been delayed, does that count as disrupting the original timeline?

@NathanScott

what will be true of the journey from earth to the moon and back

No, the timeline would be from post-takeoff to landing on earth. I’m not counting weather delaying takeoffs either.

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