The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:
With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries. Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. -DGAP
While it isn't clear when "intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine", let's try with roughly a 10 year period from now.
Resolves YES when Russia intentionally attacks a NATO member. Accidents like a misfired missiles are not sufficient. If it triggers NATO article 5 it is sufficient.
Resolves NO in 2034.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
Covert Operations ('Green Men'): Actions carried out by anonymous or special ops forces (often called 'green men') will not resolve the market as YES. Such operations are viewed as distinct from an overt, intentional attack by Russia.
Annexations: Events like the annexation of Crimea, even if involving military force, do not count as a YES resolution.
Primary Criterion: A YES resolution requires a clear, intentional attack by Russian forces on a NATO member, not merely covert or annexation-related military actions.
1,000The current comunity prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?") is at 13% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8636/russia-nato-war-without-us/).
@HannesLynchburg Probably not. This is motivated by the idea that Russia "reconstitute its armed forces" but "green men" special ops is something they can to do anytime. The annexation of Crimea would not have resolved YES.
Stumbled over it via this (german) blog post which I do not consider trustworthy. Curious what others think.