Will Germany tighten its refugee policy before 2030?
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44
2.7k
2029
74%
chance

Germany's right-wing party AfD is rising in polls. The strongest reason to vote for them seems to be current immigration policy, which the AfD wants to tighten. More precisely, it is the refugee policy for asylum seekers. While it is unlikely that the AfD will get into the government, the current favorite, CDU, is shifting their positions to the right. Thus, it seems possible that during the next legislative period 2025-2029 the government might give in to these demands.

Resolves YES if Germany's refugee policy is significantly tightened before 2030.

Resolves NO otherwise.

What does "significantly tightened" mean? A popular call is to follow Sweden's example, as they turned from one of europe's most open to a very closed country. What did they do?

  • Deny entry without a passport.

  • Reducing times for residence permits.

  • Denying family reunion.

  • Stopping allowance after some time.

If Germany adapt their policies like this, it would be significant. It should affect hundreds of thousands of people.

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Fwiw, I think the resolution criteria are still quite fuzzy and so I don't feel great about Marktwse participating, and right now being the biggest "NO" holder. I think it's generally good practice to not participate if the resolution will depend significantly on the judgement of the question author.

opened a Ṁ110 YES at 74% order

Fair point. I added a limit order at the current price to sell off my shares if anybody wants to take them. I'm just not sure if I entered the correct value for the order.

Thanks, I appreciate that!

predicts NO

German government is open to tightening it in EU level. It is not that concrete yet, but it doesn’t look significant enough (yet) to resolve this as YES.

Nice question! I‘ll provide a bit more liquidity

I dont see a remilitarised, right-wing Germany any time soon.

predicts NO

If anybody wonders about the spike today: The primary reason seems to be that I boosted the question with 100Ṁ. No news event.

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