There is more success in shaping the future than predicting it. Evidence by 2034?
Basic
1
Ṁ302033
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
My understanding of this blog post is: You will be more successful, as a marketer or company, if you actively shape the future than trying to predict it.
Resolves YES if there is convincing evidence by end of 2033 that this is true.
Resolves NO if no such evidence is available.
I'm not betting myself (after my initial bet down to 28%).
I'm not sure how to assess the "convincing" aspect yet. It does not need to be a majority opinion or consensus. It should be of higher quality than the blog post above.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
26% chance
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
30% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?
33% chance
Which of Sabine Hossenfelder's predictions from "What will they think about us in 2085?" will be right?
Will prediction markets be able to predict the month any given person would die by > 95% by 2035?
24% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?
48% chance
Who will be the most successful pro-natalist by 2040?
Will I have children by 2035?
45% chance
Looking back from 2035, has the e/acc movement been successful?
41% chance
Will Insight Prediction fail by the end of 2024?
3% chance