There is more success in shaping the future than predicting it. Evidence by 2034?
1
27
Ṁ30Ṁ50
2033
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
My understanding of this blog post is: You will be more successful, as a marketer or company, if you actively shape the future than trying to predict it.
Resolves YES if there is convincing evidence by end of 2033 that this is true.
Resolves NO if no such evidence is available.
I'm not betting myself (after my initial bet down to 28%).
I'm not sure how to assess the "convincing" aspect yet. It does not need to be a majority opinion or consensus. It should be of higher quality than the blog post above.
Get Ṁ600 play money
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