Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission? [Metaculus]
12
315Ṁ1178resolved Nov 17
ResolvedN/A
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
79%
EPP + S&D + RE (continuation)
15%
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA
3%Other
1.3%
EPP + RE + ECR
Metaculus Mirror. Resolves the same:
The sub-question associated with the coalition that forms the first EU Commission after the June 2024 elections will resolve Yes. All other sub-questions resolve No.
If no elections are held or government is formed in 2024, the question is annulled.
My understanding is that Metaculus allows adding answers, so I added "Other" here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which country will be the next to join the European Union?
[Metaculus] Will Norway announce a referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in Sept. 2025?
16% chance
Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
10% chance
How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?
Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
45% chance
Which of these countries will join the EU before 2030?
What will be true about the European Union before 2040? [add responses]
Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?
32% chance
Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?
44% chance