I will resolve individual countries to YES when they join the EU if they do so at any point before 2030. Leaving the EU after joining it will not affect the YES resolution. Any countries that haven't joined the EU by January 1st, 2030 will be resolved to NO at that point. (https://manifold.markets/embed/BradleyHe/will-any-new-countries-join-the-eu)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Montenegro, followed by North Macedonia and Ukraine are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Jul 6, 2026).

Which of these countries will join the EU before 2030?

I've just bought a symbolic 1 mana against any of these countries joining.

The only country with a realistic chance is Montenegro, and even they still need to:

figure out how to join given they already use the euro unilaterally
close 17/33 negotiating chapters
everyone sign the treaty
everyone ratify the treaty
they themselves need a referendum before ratifying

Enlargements usually happen on January 1 so actually this market has a decent chanceof being wrong by one day. If everything goes perfectly then Montenegro might join in 2029. None of the other countries will make it, this is free mana.

Add Iceland? https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/12/22/icelands-incoming-government-says-it-will-put-eu-membership-to-referendum-by-2027

Montenegro pushes for EU membership by 2028, Feb 28 2024

Turkey won't join lol

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