Germany's finance minister, Christian Lindner, proposed an Aktienrente (equity pension) but had to tone it down to a Aktienrücklage (equity reserve). https://www.socialeurope.eu/pension-reform-in-germany-a-market-solution
Closes at the end of 2025 (which is after the current election period).
Resolves YES, if Lindner's proposal is implemented. Minor changes are acceptable since no concrete law was proposed yet anyways. Changes must be active before 2026.
Resolves NO, if Germany's pension system is unchanged. Also NO, if a very different proposal than the one from Christian Lindner is introduced. Also NO, if changes become active only on 1. January 2026 or later even if the law is decided already.
Resolve NO immediately, if Christian Lindner definitely abandons his proposal.
Update 2024-22-12 (PST): * Market will resolve NO immediately if the FDP (Free Democratic Party) fails to get any seats in parliament (AI summary of creator comment)
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@Schwabilismus ah, well, i forgot about this part of the resolution criteria "NO, if a very different proposal than the one from Christian Lindner is introduced". I thought that there's still a chance that the SPD could push for some kind of equity reserve, but they almost certainly wouldn't use Lindner's template. But that's a prediction, actually! And not a fact. Therefore I still think this resolution was technically premature, albeit pragmatically okay. On Metaculus, this question would have likely sat at 0.1% for the rest of the year and resolved only then.