Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?
Basic
561
805k
Dec 31
42%
chance

Same as this market but closes and resolves end of 2024
https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up



"This market resolves YES if at close (end of **2024**) my subjective perception is that this was a good take (https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273) --e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not."

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Veo from Deep Mind just announced:

Sora video of a bird flapping its wings (not a close-up, though): https://x.com/_tim_brooks/status/1761235778875883810?s=46&t=IJDqz7vSZa4dTPyRFD_hCA

bought Ṁ400 NO

@EMcNeill I would have to get very far from sober to mistake this for being real.

@DanW the things is that this is both incredibly impressive, but also just not there yet. Similar to LLMs

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 66% order

Assuming this resolves NO if AI-generated video is indeed as good as the moth video, but Twitter or your web browser have a feature that tells you whether a video is AI-generated or not, and this works well enough to in fact dispel user doubts about authenticity.

@JonasVollmer Nope, the market description says that this is author's subjective take on the quality of AI video generation

@firstuserhere Sure but what if the quality is really good but there's a flag that reads "this content is AI-generated"? It seems that it should resolve NO in that case, given that the tweet wouldn't hold up in that case, and Eliezer was 'importantly wrong about something'.

@JonasVollmer shrug, maybe. Upto the author. Imo the value of the prediction market comes from judgement of the quality of AI generated video being evaluated instead of whether viewing video on a specific platform has a specific flag, and that's what my interpretation was. If people watch a beautiful scenic video and their first thought is whether the video is AI generated or not, then I think the tweet holds up

People can always remove the EXIF tags or reencode videos to get around any well-known fingerprinting. I think this cannot resolve NO on the basis of opt-in tagging systems.

@Paul Perhaps the tagging is automatic, based on similar content hosted on the same platform.

@firstuserhere Sure! I'd like to know what the @creator of this question thinks

@GeorgeVii According to who's judgement can this market resolve Yes without /journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up resolving Yes first?

There are a lot of specific, technical features of the moth video, such as the physics of the dust coming off of the wings that I am quite confident, will not be achieved by the end of 2024, but I’m a little worried about the fact that this resolves on whether or not the author thinks it was a good take, and not on specific details like that

sold Ṁ148 YES

These two videos are the closest analogy we have so far to the moth video: https://x.com/duborges/status/1758197369600872693?s=20

To me they meet the bar I envisioned in my head - as Sora becomes open to the public, I'm going to start to wonder if videos I come across randomly on Twitter are AI generated. Will it perfectly hold up to scrutiny? Probably not. But the spirit seems to be fulfilled to me.

As an example, go scrolling through nature Twitter accounts and ask yourself how many of the videos feel like they could be AI to you already, like this "sleeping turtle" that feels like it could be right out of the blog post:

bought Ṁ10 NO at 61%
bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Yud has officially said that Sora isn't good enough to resolve this as Yes

@jonsimon Is this market about whether this was a good take regarding 2024 (1) or 2026 (2) or whether Yud thinks he was "right" regarding 2024 (3) or 2026 (4) or whether @GeorgeVii thinks this was a good take regarding 2024 (5) or 2026 (6) or whether @GeorgeVii thinks Yud was "right" regarding 2024 (7) or 2026 (8) or whether @GeorgeVii thinks Yud thinks this was a good take regarding 2024 (9) or 2026 (10) or whether @GeorgeVii thinks Yud thinks he was "right" regarding 2024 (11) or 2026 (12) or whether the tweet is generally regarded as "right" in 2024 (13) or 2026 (14) or whether Yud or @GeorgeVii think the tweet is generally regarded as correct in 2024/2026 (15-18)?

@Primer some have also proposed it's about whether @journcy thinks this was a good take; I think there are many more than just 18 possibilities!

I just made a related market that I hope is relatively objective to focus on one big challenge I see in AI video generation: realistic animal movement.

The tweet goes "Anytime you see a video this beautiful, your first thought will be to wonder whether it's real".

That video of the monkey is cool but it does not have movement, coherency or quality like that moth video. So even if this gets released to the public it does not qualify at ALL. the video generation would have to be good enough to actually make something "this beautiful". The beauty of the moth video is IN the quality and movement. Just a shitty panning video of a moth standing still will not be enough for any of us to ever doubt a video like the one yud replied to is real.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 72%
bought Ṁ10 YES at 40%

@SophusCorry It's not just "can a video be made that will fool me" it's "when I see a beautiful video LIKE THIS, will I then wonder if it's real?" Which both requires video AI of that level, and it being wide spread enough to make it likely to be on Twitter, pretending to be real footage.

Win for yudkowsky, well played

@calderknight mostly the market agreed with his 2-4 year prediction, it's not a contrarian take.

sold Ṁ92 YES

Looks like this market likely hinges on a model that improves on Sora rolling out this year

https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1758371216682045643?t=ufaxA6tdIIlw38X8BtkogQ&s=19

bought Ṁ50 NO from 74% to 73%

honestly I would feel a lot more comfortable betting in this market if the creator didn't have 16k mana worth of yes shares

sold Ṁ130 YES

@FreshFrier Woah, yeah - I didn't see that!

Pretty unusual to bet in a market based on your own subjective judgement!

@FreshFrier Market should resolve according to parent market judgement as stated in description. "Same as this market".