As of this morning, Tumbles "double your mana" loans were paid off, then Manifold has seized the assets.
Large is a bit subjective, but I would imagine something like 1000 downloads per episode is "small" and 100,000 is "large". Blocked and Reported counts as large, because they are who I'm thinking of specifically, and might send them this as a tip for an episode. I will not bet in this market.
For print, I'm not really sure how I would expect it to be measured. Obviously something like Wired would count as large, and so would something like Robin Hanson's blog, but my blog would be small.
Getting featured by Manifold's own press releases does not count for this.
Time frame is set to about two months.
Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Sufficient coverage includes brief mentions, such as an item in a list format (e.g., similar to Matt Levine's "Things Happen" column), provided the outlet is large.
Resolution Update: After getting featured on Manifold's Above the Fold (https://news.manifold.markets/p/financial-complex-stumbled-and-nuked), the collapse of the Tumbles Financial Complex was briefly covered by the aforementioned "Things Happen" column (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-05/bankruptcy-was-good-for-23andme).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,747 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,675 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,755 | |
| 4 | Ṁ879 | |
| 5 | Ṁ143 |
People are also trading
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-05/bankruptcy-was-good-for-23andme
It (and us in this market) were Covered in Money Stuff. Hello Money Stuff readers.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm not a thief or a copyright artist but......it's directly relevant here:
Resolution problems
Elsewhere in prediction markets, here is a weird story about a contract on Manifold, a play-money prediction market, on “Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?” “By the beginning of May, 2025, after the Canadian voters had handed the Liberal party a mandate to form a government, and Carney was all-but-formally the prime minister, the market settled at 99% odds for Carney.” And then shenanigans:
On May 4, 2025, the market creator, Peter Njeim, decided to embroil himself in these shenanigans. He swapped human-readable labels for the two options "Pierre Poilievre" and "Mark Carney"; the shares were still attached to their original, unique outcome identifiers so that traders who bought NO on the former could see "NO | Mark Carney" in their portfolios which was not in fact how they had traded! Almost immediately after swapping the labels, Njeim resolved the market to the outcome originally representing Pierre Poilievre, but which now displayed the label "Mark Carney.” This kind of resolution meant that traders who chose the correct answer did not get their payouts.
Honestly swapping the labels is kind of elegant nonsense. It was eventually fixed, but a very levered (in play money!) bettor on the wrong side (called “Tumbles”) was “nuked,” leaving him with negative play-money balances and “potentially making a few select election markets less liquid and more directionally accurate.”
Anyway there is also a separate Manifold market about whether this story will be “covered by a ‘large’ podcast or news outlet,” with Money Stuff specifically mentioned as a qualifying outlet, so several readers sent it to me and disclosed that they had bets on that market. Incentives!