As of this morning, Tumbles "double your mana" loans were paid off, then Manifold has seized the assets.

Large is a bit subjective, but I would imagine something like 1000 downloads per episode is "small" and 100,000 is "large". Blocked and Reported counts as large, because they are who I'm thinking of specifically, and might send them this as a tip for an episode. I will not bet in this market.

For print, I'm not really sure how I would expect it to be measured. Obviously something like Wired would count as large, and so would something like Robin Hanson's blog, but my blog would be small.

Getting featured by Manifold's own press releases does not count for this.

Time frame is set to about two months.

• Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Sufficient coverage includes brief mentions, such as an item in a list format (e.g., similar to Matt Levine's "Things Happen" column), provided the outlet is large.

• Resolution Update: After getting featured on Manifold's Above the Fold (https://news.manifold.markets/p/financial-complex-stumbled-and-nuked), the collapse of the Tumbles Financial Complex was briefly covered by the aforementioned "Things Happen" column (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-05/bankruptcy-was-good-for-23andme).