Resolves YES if chess is solved, showing that Black can force a draw. Resolves NO if White can force a win.
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@JoshuaB I find it hard to imagine that Black can force a win but not a draw, but I suppose it’s possible in principle (?) and if that ends up being the case then this will resolve NO. I’d bet heavily against that possibility, but I can’t rule it out.
@NcyRocks Indeed I think it is possible in principle. There are often points in the middlegame where you sacrifice material for a winning attack, and those moves would potentially be off limits to black in this scenario.
Someone should make a market about this.
@NcyRocks Are you saying that if there is any strategy for white that will cause black to win or lose 100% of the time, and never draw, this market will resolve NO?
@NcyRocks The description seems to imply that if chess is solved then the market will resolve. That is not the case under that rule
@NcyRocks Is "any strategy" inclusive of White resigning immediately, thereby forcing a loss (and not a draw)?
My apologies everyone, I seem to have gotten confused between "Black can force a draw against a perfect player" and "Black can force a draw against any player", or something like that. I had the latter in mind, people care about the former, and I thought they were equivalent, which is clearly wrong. People seem to have traded on both understandings. My bad!
It seems like the two interpretations are probably pretty similar, if we don't count resigning? (Which I did think of in response to @JoshuaB's comment above)
@NcyRocks There's no reason why that couldn't happen. Intuition says it's unlikely, but chess is not even close to solved, so it could totally be possible.