What is the outcome of a traditional game of chess with optimal play?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess

(No 50-move rule, repetition is a draw.)

This market resolves once chess is solved. To bet on how long that will take, see here.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Draw, followed by Win for white and Win for black are most likely. See the market for live updates (82 traders, as of Mar 3, 2026).