By the end of 2030, will over a million rogue planets be found?
Basic
25
597
2031
33%
chance

Free floating planets (FFP) or rogue planets are planets unattached to a star. They are detected usually through microlensing or direct imaging. The current count is likely less than a thousand (we know about 5000 exoplanets in total: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_exoplanets). Definitions of what counts as an FFP detection are to a degree controversial, like everything in science. The Roman space telescope (to be launched in 2027) is expected to reveal orders of magnitude more. If they exist…

At the end of 2030 I will assess the available evidence and if the most generous number among those estimated according to principles that the astronomical community deems reasonable (in my judgment of the community’s consensus) exceeds 1 million I will resolve YES. This is unconditional on the Roman telescope even though it is expected to play a huge role. Primordial black holes of planetary mass will not count towards the FFP count if they are reasonably proven to be black holes and not planets.

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