1,000
3.00See my pessimistic comment in the "10k planets by 2025" market: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-there-be-10k-confirmed-exoplan#axQJT66EhWr2Zpuip3EQ
Unless there are any amazing ground-based surveys that I don't know about, this question will hinge on the exoplanet discoveries made by a couple of upcoming space telescopes:
- This Chinese follow-up to the Kepler mission, due to launch in 2026, which hopes to find "dozens" of earth-like planets (but unclear whether it will also rack up thousands of larger planets along the way): https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01025-2
- PLATO, a transit-method satellite being developed by ESA, scheduled for launch in 2026. It will apparently find "thousands" of exoplanets: https://sci.esa.int/web/plato/-/61280-delivery-of-first-detectors-for-platos-exoplanet-mission But remember that you often have to wait years to confirm an exoplanet via the transit method! Kepler launched in 2009, but we didn't get the first first really big dump of exoplanet discoveries until 2014.
- WFIRST, a microlensing-based approach from NASA, which will also discover "thousands" during its mission lifetime (https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1632/wfirst-will-use-warped-space-time-to-help-find-exoplanets/), although it is only scheduled for launch in mid-2027, and that date will probably slip further, as WFIRST has been subject to congressional funding battles, delays, cost overruns, etc, similar to the JWST: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope#Funding_history_and_status If WFIRST only launches in, say, late 2028, it might not have much time to contribute to the 2030 deadline here.
So, there is more of a real chance that we hit 30K by 2030, than 10K by 2025. But considering how badly off the 2025 market seemed to be, and the fact that space missions are often delayed and finding exoplanets takes time, and the fact that there is a difference between "thousands" and tens of thousands, I think 70% is probably a tad high for this market.
