Would Eliezer Yudkowsky Press a Button that Ensured a 95% Probability of Doom? | Manifold

Would Eliezer Yudkowsky Press a Button that Ensured a 95% Probability of Doom?

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resolved Jan 2

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Eliezer Yudkowsky has (I believe) expressed that he believes there is a >95% likelihood that the outcome of deploying transformative artificial intelligence results in doom. Would he then press a button that ensured there was a 95% probability of doom due to the deployment of transformative artificial intelligence?

This market resolves YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky places a YES bet on this market, and NO if he places a NO bet. It will resolve N/A if he has not bet on this market by Jan 01 2024.

I am going to avoid providing a definition of doom in case it creates loopholes for resolution, and just use "whatever Eliezer Yudkowsky thinks doom is" instead.

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