Eliezer Yudkowsky has (I believe) expressed that he believes there is a >95% likelihood that the outcome of deploying transformative artificial intelligence results in doom. Would he then press a button that ensured there was a 95% probability of doom due to the deployment of transformative artificial intelligence?
This market resolves YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky places a YES bet on this market, and NO if he places a NO bet. It will resolve N/A if he has not bet on this market by Jan 01 2024.
I am going to avoid providing a definition of doom in case it creates loopholes for resolution, and just use "whatever Eliezer Yudkowsky thinks doom is" instead.
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@EliTyre This is true. However, it is pretty clear in fact he would push a button like that, if he had it.
I'm not sure the result of pressing the button is clear.
Does it change the total probability of AI doom happening at any point in the future?
Or does it change the probability of AI doom happening, conditional on transformative AI being deployed?