Context:
The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.
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"There are signs that this is already happening" https://www.newscientist.com/article/2518268-shift-in-the-gulf-stream-could-signal-ocean-current-collapse/
It probably wouldn’t change your resolution but the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, it’s just a subsystem of it. So the AMOC could collapse but the Gulf Stream basically never will unless the earth stops spinning.
@Ansel Good point - My understanding is that if it is indeed slowing down (that is also debated) it will reach a tipping point where it will "collapse" as in cease to exist as we know it, either by stopping or the flow pattern diverting significantly. My assumption is that such an event would cause obvious climate effects and headlines that would mean the question resolves to YES.
@lokling You are baking a prediction into the resolution criteria itself. This will lead to market chaos if it's not manifestly obvious or a sudden change overnight.
I had Claude Opus 4.7 help me write up some clearer resolution criteria. Would you be willing to adopt the 5 or 6 Sverdrups measurement as our source of truth?
If so, do you want to go with a 5 Sv cutoff? Or 6 Sv?
Note to self. I set a calendar reminder for me to check back in on this market in 6 months (on Nov 3). I might ask for a moderator to come check this out and adopt a clarification if the Market Creator doesn't respond by then, as this market might blow up if we aren't careful.