
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
57
11kṀ11k2040
31%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 20%.
There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).
Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?
61% chance
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
60% chance
Will the remains of a full-scale city dating to before 12,000 years ago be found by the end of 2030?
12% chance
Will any other research team find obelisks before 2030?
91% chance
By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza?
24% chance