Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC? | Manifold

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

57

11kṀ11k

2040

31%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 20%.

There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).

Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).

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Hmm, I'll bet sea levels have risen a bit since then.

predictedYES

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/arp.1912

Just a moment...

bought Ṁ2 YES

@BrianCaulfield Looking under the proverbial couch cushions right now.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy35mx/a-prehistoric-pyramid-may-have-just-rewritten-human-history-scientists-claim

A Prehistoric Pyramid May Have Just Rewritten Human History, Scientists Claim

The pyramid of Gunung Padang in Indonesia began construction in the deep past, a new study claims, and was built by an unknown ancient people.

How hard are we looking?

this question made it into long now https://longbets.org/933/ (also kinda arb with /SG/major-archaeological-discovery-riva)

showcasing this market because it's uncertain, original, and relevant to our understanding of tech progress

People are also trading

Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?

Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?

Will the remains of a full-scale city dating to before 12,000 years ago be found by the end of 2030?

Will any other research team find obelisks before 2030?

By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza?

Related questions

Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?

Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?

Will the remains of a full-scale city dating to before 12,000 years ago be found by the end of 2030?

Will any other research team find obelisks before 2030?

By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza?

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