Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
➕
Plus
55
10k
2040
31%
chance

Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 20%.

There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).

Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).

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bought Ṁ2 YES

@BrianCaulfield Looking under the proverbial couch cushions right now.

bought Ṁ50 YES at 33%

How hard are we looking?

this question made it into long now https://longbets.org/933/ (also kinda arb with /SG/major-archaeological-discovery-riva)

showcasing this market because it's uncertain, original, and relevant to our understanding of tech progress

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