Will the Liberal Democrats consistently outpoll the Conservative Party in 2025?
4
400Ṁ130Dec 31
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows the Liberal Democrats polling above (note: above and not equal to, bearing in mind the chart rounds to 0 decimal places) the Conservative Party for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool. Excepting any obvious data / charting errors on Politico's end. All 14 days must fall within 2025 I.e. the streak cannot start on Dec 31st 2025. Politico do take time to update their charts, so any 14 day period must remain in place for 14 days after it completes.
If for any reason Politico's Poll of Polls ceases to function then the backup metric is Wikipedia's UK Polling chart.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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