Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll in 2023?
49
190
Ṁ29KṀ930
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise.
A valid poll must:
– Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a regional poll
– Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical
– Have the Conservatives leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published
– Be carried out entirely within 2023
– Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council
See here for past polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ189 | |
| 2 | Ṁ179 | |
| 3 | Ṁ117 | |
| 4 | Ṁ81 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
Related questions
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?
60% chance
If Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
33% chance
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
179
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 200 seats at the next UK general election?
20% chance
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will Reform UK be ahead of the Conservative Party in an opinion poll before the next general election?
29% chance
Will the polling gap between Labour and Conservative parties change before the 2024 UK General Election?
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?
29% chance
Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?
70% chance