Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Kemi Badenoch? | Manifold

Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Kemi Badenoch?

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resolved Nov 2

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Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Kemi Badenoch. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary.

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@lisamarsh I think this can be resolved now.

https://manifold.markets/NiallWeaver/will-kemi-badenoch-be-demoted-from?r=TmlhbGxXZWF2ZXI

Will Kemi Badenoch be demoted from Cabinet before a change or vacancy for Prime Minister or a dissolution of Parliament.

46% chance. Demotion is defined as loss of her seat at the Cabinet without acquiring immediately another Cabinet position. All Cabinet positions are treated equal. Merely attending Cabinet is not the equivalent of membership of Cabinet. Temporary leave for maternity or illness is ignored: if the mar…

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