Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
1,000
3.00@ChinmayTheMathGuy Trump overperformed in many races, relative to down ballot (at least in the Senate I know this is true). Maybe people buy wholesale into his messaging, maybe it's bc Kamala is uniquely bad in the eyes of many, maybe it's because Kamala is a black woman, maybe I'm wrong and it's gerrymandering.
Bearish on Dems controlling the Senate. None of the Republican seats are competitive right now, and GOP is virtually guaranteed to take Joe Machin's seat. Meanwhile, Democrats have 7 competitive races they need to win if they want to maintain 50 seats. Plus the vice-presidency.
Most likely outcome is that GOP keeps the 49 seats they already have, plus Manchin and Tester's seats, as well as one of the "Toss UP" elections. That would put them at 52.
Upgrading this market to premium!
Currently, Nate Silver has the national odds at 53.7% Harris to 45.9% Trump.
The Economist has it at 51% Harris to 48% Trump.
Meanwhile our friends at Metaculus currently have 55% Harris to 45% Trump, and their Balance of Power market shows this:
I've been (cleaning up) in the Metaculus quarterly competition this last month, and one thing I've noticed is as soon as a market falls below like ~10% (or above ~90%) probability, there's some sort of weird downward spiral effect where people notice the market probability dropping and adjust their own probabilities downwards, causing it to go even further down. You end up with some weird situations where a market gets to 0.1% in cases where that level of confidence is completely and utterly unwarranted, but it rarely teaches the traders a lesson, because even when the actual probability is 10x more, that will only go awry 1% of the time.
Adding this together, Republicans have a 48.7% chance of winning presidency to Dems 51%. Strong arbitrage with this market.