At the last UK general election in 2019, the Conservative Party won a majority with 365 out of the total 650 seats. However, since then their position in the polls has fallen significantly; with factors like tactical voting and the possible return of Nigel Farage, some have speculated that the party could collapse at the next election (which must be held by January 2025).

If that happens, the leadership race will be greatly affected; most potential candidates will have lost their seats, and the party could be either be inspired to turn towards the centre or move further to the right.

This market resolves to the name of the next permanent leader of the party after the next general election, if the party wins 50 seats or fewer; if the Conservatives win more than 50 seats, it will resolve N/A. Answers must be the name of a person (except for "Party dissolves/ceases to exist").