👴🏼 Joe Biden

👴 Trump

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

🇺🇸 US Politics

🗳️ Politics

🤖 AI

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

US Politics

presidential debate

I just joined I'm trying to decide what my four favorite films should be listed as. Each correct answer will resolve to 25%. 

I won't bet or tell anyone the answer. I won't reveal too much info in the comments but I might reveal some. If you add a movie that I haven't seen, I might go see it and then it might resolve yes.

The market resolves once I feel confident in my top four being reasonably final.

The starting four options are all movies I like a lot and would consider putting in my top four, but only one of them is in the most recent draft of the list.

📺 Television & Film

🎥 Movies

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🎨 Culture

Does not need to be indicted or found guilty

Law & Order

🧑‍🎤 Celebrities

Drake/Kendrick Beef

🎷 Music

This market will be changing to adjust to the pivot. Details soon.

Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 5 2024

Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 5 2024

#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.

#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.

#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.

#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.

#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.

#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.

#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)

#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).

#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.

#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.

Jimmy Carter Daily

Public Figures

Jimmy Carter

Longevity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud

Hip-Hop/Rap

This market resolves to the streaming service that has higher viewership in Nielsen's April 2024 viewership report (whatever looks similar to that link).

💼  Business

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

Science

superconductivity

LK-99

The question will be resolved with results published at 

Dead heats happen, so multiple winners are possible.

The question will close at the originally scheduled post time for the race.

Belmont Stakes

Saratoga

Horse racing

🏟️ Sports

Grade/Group 1 Race

Pimlico

Preakness

The question will be verified with results published at 

Ties within this Manifold question will not be broken, making multiple correct answers are possible.

The question will close at the originally scheduled post time for the last race on the card.  The anticipated question resolution time is no later than 8:00 PM CT if not earlier.

Churchill Downs

Jockey

NBA Playoffs

2023-2024 NBA Season

🏀 Basketball

Racing Sports

Kentucky Derby

This refers to the global sale of Apple Vision Pro units.

🍎 Apple

👓 Apple Vision Pro

Virtual Reality

🪙 Crypto

🅱️ Bitcoin

Bitcoin maxi

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

College Protesters Make Divestment From Israel a Rallying Cry

Will any US college announce plans to divest from Israel, in response to protests by June (assumed to be the end of the school year)?

Announcements from university presidents or boards here will count, even if the divestment does not begin by June (i.e. “we will begin divesting from Israel-supporting stocks in 2024” would Resolve YES).

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

Colleges & Universities

🇮🇱 Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Can include mid-ceremony disturbance that cancels the rest of the event. Must be permanent cancellation and not just rescheduling/postponement.

🇵🇸 Palestine

Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.

No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.

The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative.

Cannabis

Drugs

Drug Policy

🐘 Republican Party

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.

If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.

'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

at least three of the actors: Brad Pitt, Zoe Bell, Samuel L Jackson, Michael Madsen, Tim Roth, Uma Thurman

'actor':6 'bell':10 'brad':7 'jackson':13 'l':12 'least':2 'madsen':15 'michael':14 'pitt':8 'roth':17 'samuel':11 'three':3 'thurman':19 'tim':16 'uma':18 'zoe':9

'5':3 'bare':6 'feet':7 'least':2 'pair':4

scenes from another era/decade/time period

'anoth':3 'era/decade/time':4 'period':5 'scene':1

'5':3 'least':2 'n':8 'n-word':7 'use':4 'word':9

In April 2024, Quentin Tarantino announced he was 

As of the time of market creation, his final film has not yet been announced.

This market is to collect interesting ideas and speculations on what Tarantino's tenth (and 

Add your own options! I'll NA submissions that are either too simple/obvious or are disingenuous - essentially, I'll curate this market as I see fit for quality control (and we're limited to a max of 100 answers).

The market resolves to the movie itself. I'll resolve certain answers when the film goes into production, but not based on reports or announcements given the last one was canceled.

Hollywood

Prop Bets

Quentin Tarantino

Including moderators, only during the actual debate, not the pre- or post- discussions of the debate.

If there are no Presidential debates in 2024 this will resolve to No.

Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.

He will make it past the Smokies but will get off trail before Damascus, VA

'damascus':14 'get':10 'make':3 'past':5 'smoki':7 'trail':12 'va':15

He will make it as far as Damascus, but won’t make it all the way to Rockfish Gap (intended destination)

'damascus':8 'destin':21 'far':6 'gap':19 'intend':20 'make':3,12 'rockfish':18 'way':16 'won':10

He will continue past his original stopping point

'continu':3 'origin':6 'past':4 'point':8 'stop':7

Zadek has started his hike on the AT!  His plan is to be at Rockfish Gap (southern end of Shenandoah) around 7/20, a trail distance of 850 miles.