Will a billionaire make a Manifold market by the end of 2023
43
Ṁ4KṀ810
Dec 31
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ41 +318.7%
New probability
24% +0.8%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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Fionbought Ṁ30 of NO
@Conflux I would have thought lots. Scott Alexander must be a millionaire with all that Substack money. There are various other public figures on here, some of whom will have money. But also, I think there are some mid-late career programmers and people who work in finance on here. Any American with a high salary and a desire to have savings will get to be a millionaire pretty quick.
Seems hard to prove, but it seems very likely to me. If somebody made a market with resolution criteria I could get behind (big if), I'd buy to 95% or more.
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