Will a billionaire make a Manifold market by the end of 2023

43

Ṁ4KṀ810

Dec 31

23%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Amount

Ṁ0

Ṁ50

Ṁ100

Payout if YES

Ṁ41 +318.7%

New probability

24% +0.8%

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Fionbought Ṁ30 of NO

@Conflux I would have thought lots. Scott Alexander must be a millionaire with all that Substack money. There are various other public figures on here, some of whom will have money. But also, I think there are some mid-late career programmers and people who work in finance on here. Any American with a high salary and a desire to have savings will get to be a millionaire pretty quick.

Seems hard to prove, but it seems very likely to me. If somebody made a market with resolution criteria I could get behind (big if), I'd buy to 95% or more.

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